2030년까지 자동차 생산의 변환 Transforming vehicle production by 2030

Transforming vehicle production by 2030: How shared mobility and automation will revolutionize the auto industry. 2030년까지 자동차 생산의 변환: 어떻게 공유 이동성과 자동화가 자동차산업에 혁명을 일으킬 것인가.

 

이 자료는 PWC(2018.10.09.)에서 발간한 것으로, 이후 자동차산업의 생산과 노동력 변화에 대해 간결하게 잘 정리한 자료입니다. 아래는 개요를 초벌 번역한 것이고, 상세 내용은 원문(Pdf)과 동영상을 참조하시기 바랍니다.

 https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/gx/en/insights/transforming-vehicle-production.html

 

Executive summary

The auto industry stands on the brink of a revolution. By 2030, vehicle production will have split between mass-market, largely no-frills “cars on demand” that will be rented journey-by-journey and more customized vehicles for those who still want to drive, or be driven in, their own vehicle. 자동차 산업은 혁명 직전에 있다. 2030년까지 차량 생산은 대량-시장, 대체로 꼭 필요한 요소만 있는, 이동용으로 대여될 “수요에 따른 차”와 여전히 자기 소유 차를 운전하고 싶어 하는 사람들을 위한 더 고객맞춤화된 차로 분리될 것이다.

 

A high level of automation will be needed to produce both types of vehicles, and every process will be affected. The pressure on the workforce will be severe. The industry workforce will be cut by at least 50 percent by 2030, and employees who remain will need very different skills. Automakers must become data managers and mobility service providers as well as vehicle assemblers. 높은 수준의 자동화가 두 유형의 차량 생산에 모두 필요할 것이며, 모든 과정/공정이 영향을 받을 것이다. 노동력에 대한 압박은 혹독할 것이다. 차산업 노동력은 2030년까지 최소한 50퍼센트까지 감소될 것이며, 남아 있는 직원들은 매우 다른 숙련/기술을 필요로 할 것이다. 자동차 제조업체는 차량 조립자일 뿐 아니라 데이터 관리자 및 이동 서비스 제공자가 되어야만 한다.

 

This shift has enormous implications not just for personal mobility, but also for automakers’ business models. Competition for profits started to intensify two decades ago when suppliers began doing more of the work that automakers — also known as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) — had traditionally done, such as building interiors and dashboards. That competition will step up a gear in the new era, as suppliers take on even more of this work, leaving OEMs to figure out where they should best play. 이러한 전환은 단지 개인의 이동성만이 아니라, 자동차 제조기업의 사업 모델에도 거대한 영향을 끼친다. 계기판이나 인테리어 제작 같은, 전통적으로 자동차 제조업체들(OEMs)이 해왔던 일들 중 더 많은 부분을 부품 공급업체들이 하기 시작한 20년 전부터 이윤 경쟁이 강화되기 시작했다. 부품 공급업체들이 훨씬 더 많은 일들을 맡게 되면서 새로운 시대에 그 경쟁은 더 강화될 것이고, 자동차 제조업체들(OEMs)은 자신들이 가장 잘 할 수 있는 영역을 알아내야 하는 처지에 놓였다.

 

Here are some of our key predictions for 2030: 여기 2030에 대한 몇 가지 우리 핵심 예측이 있다:

 

• Standardized, shared vehicles — used simply to get from A to B — will account for at least 30 percent of the market in Europe, concentrated at the lower-price end. In the U.S. and Asia, an even greater proportion is expected. 표준화된 공유 차량 - 단순히 A에서 B로 이동하는 데 사용되는 - 유럽 시장의 최소 30%를 차지할 것이고, 최저가 차에 집중될 것이다. 미국이나 아시아에서는 훨씬 더 많은 비율이 예상된다.

 

• The size of the workforce on assembly lines and in body and paint shops will be halved because of automation and the new types of vehicles being assembled. 자동화와 조립될 새로운 유형의 차량 때문에 조립 라인, 차체와 도장공장의 노동력 규모는 반으로 줄 것이다.

 

• The number of shop-floor logistics roles will be reduced by around 60 percent, partially because humans will be replaced by autonomously guided vehicles. 현장 물류 역할/일자리는 약 60퍼센트까지 감소할 것이다, 부분적으로는 인간이 자동대차(AGV)로 대체될 것이기 때문에.

 

• The number of data engineers required will almost double in some types of plants, and increase by 80 percent in others, while the number of software engineers needed will rise by as much as 90 percent. 필요한 데이터 엔지니어의 수는 어떤 유형의 공장에서는 거의 두 배로, 다른 유형의 공장에서는 80퍼센트까지 증가할 것이다. 동시에 필요한 소프트 엔지니어의 수는 80퍼센트까지 증가할 것이다.

 

• We expect the time required between R&D and the point of production to shrink from the current three to five years down to two years, to keep pace with technological changes. 기술 변화에 보조를 맞추기 위해 연구개발(R&D)과 생산 시점 사이에 소요되는 시간은 현재 3~5년에서 2년으로 줄어들 것으로 우리는 기대한다.